← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 42% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 28% | 29% | 3.57 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 62% | 1.70 | value: +5% |
| Over | 43% | 38% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Alessandro Vogliacco · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 19' | ⚽ | Eljif Elmas · Torino FC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Samuele Ricci · Torino FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Lautaro Valenti · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Simon Sohm · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 60' | ⚽ | Mateo Pellegrino · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Mateo Pellegrino · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 72' | ⚽ | Che Adams · Torino FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Che Adams · Torino FC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Mateo Pellegrino · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 35.00 | 250.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1595.43 | 1756.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.83 | 20.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.10 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.81 |
| league points | 23.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 6.76 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.74 |
| solidity v1 | 0.38 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.71 | 27.08 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 0.81 |