← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 2, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 48% | 55% | 2.00 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Como 1907 win | 24% | 20% | 4.38 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AS Roma −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Ivan Smolčić · Como 1907 |
| 27' | 🟨 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · Como 1907 |
| 44' | ⚽ | Lucas Da Cunha · Como 1907 |
| 51' | 🟨 | Maxence Caqueret · Como 1907 |
| 54' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 61' | ⚽ | Alexis Saelemaekers · AS Roma |
| 63' | 🟨 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · Como 1907 |
| 63' | 🟥 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · Como 1907 |
| 68' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 76' | ⚽ | Artem Dovbyk · AS Roma |
| 80' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Como 1907 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 🟨 |
| Alieu Fadera · Como 1907 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Lucas Da Cunha · Como 1907 |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mërgim Vojvoda · Como 1907 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 121.00 | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1843.41 | 1651.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.82 | 27.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.68 |
| league points | 40.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 5.89 | 7.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 1.83 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.86 | 25.09 |
| state index | 1.50 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.50 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 0.73 |