← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 71% | 73% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.28 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 10% | 9% | 9.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −1.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| AC Milan −1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 62% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 38% | 2.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Diego Coppola · Hellas Verona FC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Yunus Musah · AC Milan |
| 21' | 🟨 | Cheikh Niasse · Hellas Verona FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Domagoj Bradarić · Hellas Verona FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ondrej Duda · Hellas Verona FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Álex Jiménez · AC Milan |
| 75' | ⚽ | Santiago Giménez · AC Milan |
| 79' | 🟨 | Santiago Giménez · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 45.00 | 259.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1800.20 | 1561.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.80 | -6.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.10 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| league points | 38.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 7.11 | 7.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.37 | 24.84 |
| state index | 0.85 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -1.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.19 |