← Serie A 2024-25 · Fri, Feb 14, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 54% | 57% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 18% | 16% | 5.74 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 64% | 1.56 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 36% | 2.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Dan Ndoye · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 37' | ⚽ | Nikola Vlasic · Torino FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Karol Linetty · Torino FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Yann Karamoh · Torino FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Gvidas Gineitis · Torino FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Eljif Elmas · Torino FC |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Dan Ndoye · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Torino FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Cristiano Biraghi · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 258.00 | 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1832.08 | 1739.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.27 | 18.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.82 |
| league points | 38.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 5.11 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | -0.30 |
| solidity v1 | 1.40 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.07 | 26.84 |
| state index | 1.08 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.77 |