← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 74% | 75% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.85 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 9% | 8% | 11.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −1.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| AC Monza −1.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 58% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 42% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Adam Marušić · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pedro Pereira · AC Monza |
| 57' | ⚽ | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 63' | ⚽ | Valentín Castellanos · SS Lazio |
| 77' | ⚽ | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Stefano Sensi · AC Monza |
| 88' | ⚽ | Fisayo Dele-Bashiru · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 223.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1849.19 | 1602.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.43 | -26.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -1.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 42.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 5.76 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.41 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 27.74 | 25.50 |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.34 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 0.73 |