← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 8, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 57% | 61% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
| Empoli win | 19% | 15% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan +0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Empoli +0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.19 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | João Félix · AC Milan |
| 36' | 🟨 | Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan |
| 45' | 🟨 | Liam Henderson · Empoli |
| 54' | 🟨 | Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan |
| 54' | 🟥 | Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan |
| 62' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Empoli |
| 65' | 🟥 | Luca Marianucci · Empoli |
| 65' | 🟨 | Santiago Giménez · AC Milan |
| 68' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 76' | ⚽ | Santiago Giménez · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena |
| coach days | 222.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.28 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1633.31 | 1841.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.45 | -5.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| league points | 21.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | 0.72 |
| solidity v1 | -0.88 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.02 | 26.58 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.59 |