← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: L. Zufferli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 67% | 69% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.80 | fair |
| Empoli win | 12% | 11% | 8.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −1.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Empoli −1.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 48% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Mattia De Sciglio · Empoli |
| 37' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Gyasi · Empoli |
| 41' | 🟨 | Youssef Maleh · Empoli |
| 61' | ⚽ | Randal Kolo Muani · Juventus FC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Randal Kolo Muani · Juventus FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Youssef Maleh · Empoli |
| 84' | 🟥 | Youssef Maleh · Empoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dušan Vlahović · Juventus FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Francisco Conceição · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 246.00 | 216.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1886.48 | 1638.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.45 | -29.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 37.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 7.66 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | -0.69 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.37 | 25.59 |
| state index | 0.87 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.10 |