← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Massimi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 48% | 59% | 2.01 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Como 1907 win | 23% | 16% | 4.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 47% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 53% | 2.09 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Maximo Perrone · Como 1907 |
| 25' | ⚽ | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 28' | 🟨 | Charalampos Lykogiannis · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 38' | 🟨 | Alieu Fadera · Como 1907 |
| 38' | 🟥 | Alieu Fadera · Como 1907 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Maxence Caqueret · Como 1907 |
| 47' | 🟨 | Dan Ndoye · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 65' | 🟨 | Assane Diao · Como 1907 |
| 66' | ⚽ | Giovanni Fabbian · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Como 1907 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 245.00 | 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1831.09 | 1620.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.28 | 29.74 |
| eye test v1 | 1.29 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 34.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 0.76 |
| solidity v1 | 0.53 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 24.55 |
| state index | 0.73 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.48 |