← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 39% | 38% | 2.48 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.04 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 29% | 31% | 3.38 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| AC Monza −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 62% | 1.69 | value: +5% |
| Over | 43% | 38% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (og) | Stefan Leković · Hellas Verona FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Daniel Mosquera · Hellas Verona FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Cheikh Niasse · Hellas Verona FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 80' | 🟨 | Domagoj Bradarić · Hellas Verona FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Kevin Martins · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 0.00 | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1614.21 | 1605.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.19 | 5.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.47 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| league points | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 4.76 | 4.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -0.94 |
| solidity v1 | -0.53 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.29 | 24.21 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -1.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.03 |