← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Sozza
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 38% | 36% | 2.54 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 32% | 32% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio +0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| AS Roma +0.25 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.16 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Zeki Çelik · AS Roma |
| 37' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 38' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Lucca · Udinese Calcio |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jesper Karlström · Udinese Calcio |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Artem Dovbyk · AS Roma |
| 80' | 🟨 | Arthur Atta · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium |
| coach days | 239.00 | 86.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1618.60 | 1745.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.19 | 22.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 26.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 5.76 | 2.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 1.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.71 | 27.87 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.25 |