← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Abisso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 75% | 75% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 16% | 6.50 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 10% | 9% | 10.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan −1.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 −1.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 68% | 1.38 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Strahinja Pavlović · AC Milan |
| 24' | ⚽ | Matteo Cancellieri · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 33' | 🟨 | Alessandro Vogliacco · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 37' | 🟨 | Simon Sohm · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Pulišić · AC Milan |
| 43' | 🟨 | Youssouf Fofana · AC Milan |
| 45' | 🟨 | Enrico Del Prato · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Anas Haj Mohamed · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 80' | ⚽ | Enrico Del Prato · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Antoine Hainaut · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tijjani Reijnders · AC Milan |
| 90' | ⚽ | Samuel Chukwueze · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 25.00 | 909.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1834.09 | 1612.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.77 | -4.64 |
| eye test v1 | 1.08 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 41.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 31.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.95 | 25.02 |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 2.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 0.84 |