← Serie A 2024-25 · Mon, Jan 20, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Cosso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 45% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.36 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 26% | 25% | 3.76 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 56% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Assane Diao · Como 1907 |
| 44' | ⚽ | Gabriel Strefezza · Como 1907 |
| 50' | ⚽ | Martín Payero · Udinese Calcio |
| 51' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Como 1907 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Como 1907 |
| 57' | 🟥 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Como 1907 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Oumar Solet · Udinese Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Oumar Solet · Udinese Calcio |
| 63' | 🟥 | Oumar Solet · Udinese Calcio |
| 78' | ⚽ (og) | Jaka Bijol · Como 1907 |
| 81' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Como 1907 | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia |
| 🟨 |
| Jürgen Ekkelenkamp · Udinese Calcio |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jaka Bijol · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nico Paz · Como 1907 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 203.00 | 233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1585.40 | 1635.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.66 | 10.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 19.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 9.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.92 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.71 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.19 |