← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 53% | 55% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 20% | 19% | 5.06 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| SS Lazio +0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 49% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 51% | 2.02 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Samuel Gigot · SS Lazio |
| 14' | 🟨 | Samuel Gigot · SS Lazio |
| 21' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · SS Lazio |
| 26' | 🟨 | Paweł Dawidowicz · Hellas Verona FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Diego Coppola · Hellas Verona FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Domagoj Bradarić · Hellas Verona FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 72' | 🟨 | Nuno Tavares · SS Lazio |
| 77' | 🟨 | Daniele Ghilardi · Hellas Verona FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ondrej Duda · Hellas Verona FC |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi |
| 🟨 |
| Ondrej Duda · Hellas Verona FC |
| 89' | 🟥 | Ondrej Duda · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 232.00 | 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1614.12 | 1850.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.59 | -34.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| league points | 19.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 6.89 | 8.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -0.61 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.84 | 27.14 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.87 |