← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 44% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Venezia FC win | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Venezia FC −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 51% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 49% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Mandela Keita · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Antonio Candela · Venezia FC |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Hernani · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason · Venezia FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Antoine Hainaut · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Franco Carboni · Venezia FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Venezia FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 902.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1591.48 | 1558.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.85 | 10.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 38.30 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | -1.00 |
| solidity v1 | -1.79 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.47 | — |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.58 | 1.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.78 |