β Serie A 2024-25 Β· Sun, Jan 19, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Sacchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 49% | 47% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.32 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 23% | 23% | 4.60 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio β0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
| US Lecce β0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 53% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 47% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | β½ | Santiago Pierotti Β· US Lecce |
| 45' | π¨ | Santiago Pierotti Β· US Lecce |
| 52' | π¨ | Michel Adopo Β· Cagliari Calcio |
| 60' | β½ | Gianluca Gaetano Β· Cagliari Calcio |
| 65' | β½ | Sebastiano Luperto Β· Cagliari Calcio |
| 73' | π₯ | Ante RebiΔ Β· US Lecce |
| 80' | π¨ | Nadir Zortea Β· Cagliari Calcio |
| 80' | β½ | Nadir Zortea Β· Cagliari Calcio |
| 83' | β½ | Adam Obert Β· Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | π¨ | Alessandro Deiola Β· Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| coach days | 202.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1614.10 | 1620.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.62 | 12.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| league points | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.76 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -1.25 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 26.23 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.21 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.92 |