← Serie A 2024-25 · Mon, Jan 13, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Dionisi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 50% | 51% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 22% | 23% | 4.60 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| AC Monza +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 50% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 50% | 2.15 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Patrick Ciurria · AC Monza |
| 61' | 🟨 | Stefano Turati · AC Monza |
| 63' | ⚽ | Daniel Maldini · AC Monza |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Beltrán · ACF Fiorentina |
| 76' | 🟨 | Pedro Pereira · AC Monza |
| 87' | 🟨 | Warren Bondo · AC Monza |
| 87' | 🟨 | Patrick Ciurria · AC Monza |
| 87' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 26 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 43.00 | 226.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1569.72 | 1773.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.86 | -44.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 2.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 10.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 8.34 | 9.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.25 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.26 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.28 |