← Serie A 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Tremolada
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 47% | 57% | 2.05 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.44 | fair |
| Como 1907 win | 25% | 17% | 4.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| SS Lazio −0.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 55% | 1.89 | value: +3% |
| Over | 48% | 45% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · Como 1907 |
| 34' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · SS Lazio |
| 51' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · SS Lazio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Loum Tchaouna · SS Lazio |
| 58' | 🟨 | Loum Tchaouna · SS Lazio |
| 58' | 🟥 | Loum Tchaouna · SS Lazio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nicolò Rovella · SS Lazio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Assane Diao · Como 1907 |
| 72' | ⚽ | Patrick Cutrone · Como 1907 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Yannik Engelhardt · Como 1907 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Como 1907 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 193.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1857.79 | 1604.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.02 | 35.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| league points | 35.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 11.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | 0.23 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 27.66 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 0.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.18 |