← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 5, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 39% | 41% | 2.48 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 31% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| AC Monza −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 55% | 1.88 | value: +3% |
| Over | 48% | 45% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Gianluca Caprari · AC Monza |
| 22' | ⚽ | Nadir Zortea · Cagliari Calcio |
| 30' | 🟨 | Warren Bondo · AC Monza |
| 45' | 🟨 | Roberto Piccoli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 56' | ⚽ | Roberto Piccoli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 63' | 🟥 | Danilo D'Ambrosio · AC Monza |
| 67' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · Cagliari Calcio |
| 88' | 🟨 | Alessandro Bianco · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 35.00 | 188.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1628.27 | 1594.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.72 | -10.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| league points | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| solidity v1 | -0.26 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.80 | 26.95 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.30 |