← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 41% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 29% | 32% | 3.46 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AC Milan −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 46% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 54% | 2.16 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Manu Koné · AS Roma |
| 13' | 🟨 | Mats Hummels · AS Roma |
| 16' | ⚽ | Tijjani Reijnders · AC Milan |
| 23' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 43' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 44' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · AC Milan |
| 67' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 71' | 🟨 | Zeki Çelik · AS Roma |
| 82' | 🟨 | Tijjani Reijnders · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matteo Gabbia · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 28.00 | 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1850.13 | 1774.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.38 | -1.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 26.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.34 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 1.47 |
| solidity v1 | 1.41 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 25.26 | 28.51 |
| state index | 1.05 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 2.32 |