← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 36% | 39% | 2.64 | fair |
| AC Monza win | 34% | 31% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| AC Monza +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 50% | 1.95 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 50% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 28' | 🟨 | Danilo D'Ambrosio · AC Monza |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pablo Marí · AC Monza |
| 54' | 🟨 | Pablo Marí · AC Monza |
| 54' | 🟥 | Pablo Marí · AC Monza |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Hernani · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 63' | 🟨 | Lautaro Valenti · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Andrea Carboni · AC Monza |
| 74' | 🟨 | Samuele Birindelli · AC Monza |
| 78' | 🟨 | Antoine Hainaut · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 85' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |
| ⚽ |
| Pedro Pereira · AC Monza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Drissa Camara · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Pereira · AC Monza |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lautaro Valenti · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 880.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1586.18 | 1590.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.00 | -23.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 36.90 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| league points | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 5.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | 0.23 |
| solidity v1 | -2.95 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.47 | — |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 3.03 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.11 |