← Serie A 2024-25 · Mon, Dec 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 59% | 54% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.07 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 17% | 22% | 6.31 | value: +39% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio −1 | 52% | 1.90 |
| ACF Fiorentina −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Riccardo Sottil · ACF Fiorentina |
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Moise Kean · ACF Fiorentina |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jordan Zemura · Udinese Calcio |
| 46' | 🟨 | Thomas Kristensen · Udinese Calcio |
| 49' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Lucca · Udinese Calcio |
| 52' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · Udinese Calcio |
| 57' | ⚽ | Florian Thauvin · Udinese Calcio |
| 73' | 🟨 | Răzvan Sava · Udinese Calcio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Christian Kouamé · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sandi Lovrić · Udinese Calcio |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 205.00 | 205.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1845.81 | 1664.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.70 | -18.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| league points | 31.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 3.90 | 9.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | -0.50 |
| solidity v1 | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 26.32 |
| state index | 1.13 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.98 |