← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 69% | 67% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 5.10 | value: +13% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 12% | 11% | 8.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −1.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 −1.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 56% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 44% | 2.76 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 13' | ⚽ | Alexis Saelemaekers · AS Roma |
| 23' | 🟨 | Ange-Yoan Bonny · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 50' | 🟨 | Pontus Almqvist · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 51' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · AS Roma |
| 64' | 🟨 | Angeliño · AS Roma |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Leandro Paredes · AS Roma |
| 83' | ⚽ | Artem Dovbyk · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 51.00 | 874.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1764.76 | 1617.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.95 | 14.45 |
| eye test v1 | 1.08 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.78 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 37.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 6.77 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | -0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -0.66 | -1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 23.49 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 2.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.12 |