← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 15, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Lecce win | 35% | 37% | 2.88 | value: +6% |
| AC Monza win | 34% | 31% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce +0 | 51% | 1.98 |
| AC Monza +0 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 60% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 40% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Tete Morente · US Lecce |
| 20' | 🟨 | Georgios Kyriakopoulos · AC Monza |
| 28' | 🟨 | Hamza Rafia · US Lecce |
| 37' | ⚽ (og) | Patrick Dorgu · AC Monza |
| 40' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · AC Monza |
| 43' | 🟨 | Alessandro Bianco · AC Monza |
| 44' | ⚽ | Nikola Krstović · US Lecce |
| 83' | 🟨 | Daniel Maldini · AC Monza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Pereira · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare |
| coach days | 44.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1608.30 | 1652.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.84 | -21.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.66 | 5.66 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.65 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 27.70 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.15 |