← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 69% | 79% | 1.38 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 20% | 14% | 4.89 | fair |
| Venezia FC win | 10% | 7% | 10.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −1.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Venezia FC −1.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 53% | 1.95 | value: +4% |
| Under | 50% | 47% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Federico Gatti · Juventus FC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Francesco Zampano · Venezia FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Mikael Ellertsson · Venezia FC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jay Idzes · Venezia FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dušan Vlahović · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marin Šverko · Venezia FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Yeboah · Venezia FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Vlahović · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Venezia FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 196.00 | 196.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1888.72 | 1569.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.63 | -31.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 27.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.11 | 6.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 1.28 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.80 | 25.26 |
| state index | 1.10 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.25 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.10 |