← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 36% | 41% | 2.72 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 34% | 32% | 2.89 | fair |
| Empoli win | 31% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Empoli +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 65% | 1.56 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 35% | 2.54 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Daniel Silva · Hellas Verona FC |
| 16' | ⚽ | Sebastiano Esposito · Empoli |
| 19' | ⚽ | Sebastiano Esposito · Empoli |
| 32' | ⚽ | Liberato Cacace · Empoli |
| 35' | ⚽ | Casper Tengstedt · Hellas Verona FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Daniele Ghilardi · Hellas Verona FC |
| 42' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Colombo · Empoli |
| 74' | 🟨 | Youssef Maleh · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam Henderson · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 190.00 | 160.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1611.47 | 1662.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.42 | -8.87 |
| eye test v1 | -1.28 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.68 |
| league points | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 35.60 |
| rest days | 8.76 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | -1.31 |
| solidity v1 | -1.45 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.34 | 25.47 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.43 |