← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 63% | 62% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.18 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 13% | 14% | 7.59 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| US Lecce −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 58% | 1.86 | value: +7% |
| Over | 47% | 42% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Alexis Saelemaekers · AS Roma |
| 13' | ⚽ | Alexis Saelemaekers · AS Roma |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Nikola Krstović · US Lecce |
| 59' | ⚽ | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 66' | ⚽ | Niccolò Pisilli · AS Roma |
| 69' | 🟨 | Nikola Krstović · US Lecce |
| 72' | 🟨 | Mohamed Kaba · US Lecce |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rémi Oudin · US Lecce |
| 86' | ⚽ | Manu Koné · AS Roma |
| 87' | 🟨 | Manu Koné · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 36.00 |
| 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1709.72 | 1569.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.89 | 23.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -1.18 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.97 | — |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.22 |