← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 54% | 56% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 18% | 18% | 5.70 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Juventus FC −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 53% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 47% | 2.65 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Tim Weah · Juventus FC |
| 30' | ⚽ | Dan Ndoye · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jens Odgaard · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 52' | ⚽ | Tommaso Pobega · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 62' | ⚽ | Teun Koopmeiners · Juventus FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Pierre Kalulu · Juventus FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Santiago Castro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Emil Holm · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dušan Vlahović · Juventus FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jhon Lucumí · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Samuel Mbangula · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 189.00 | 189.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 4.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1837.10 | 1765.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.02 | 19.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.64 |
| league points | 26.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 5.89 | 6.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | 0.50 |
| solidity v1 | 1.18 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.00 | 27.72 |
| state index | 1.10 | 1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.42 |