← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 48% | 46% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.47 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 24% | 27% | 4.12 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 59% | 1.78 | value: +5% |
| Over | 45% | 41% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟥 | Souleymane Isaak Touré · Udinese Calcio |
| 13' | ⚽ | Andrea Pinamonti · Genoa CFC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Johan Vásquez · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · Genoa CFC |
| 67' | ⚽ (og) | Lautaro Giannetti · Genoa CFC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Aarón Martín · Genoa CFC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Thomas Kristensen · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Ebosse · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Bluenergy Stadium |
| coach days | 183.00 | 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1681.49 | 1667.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.33 | -12.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 5.75 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.63 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 28.04 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.04 |