← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 57% | 60% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.09 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 19% | 17% | 5.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan +0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Cagliari Calcio +0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 58% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 42% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Nadir Zortea · Cagliari Calcio |
| 15' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 40' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 53' | ⚽ | Gabriele Zappa · Cagliari Calcio |
| 61' | 🟨 | Youssouf Fofana · AC Milan |
| 69' | ⚽ | Tammy Abraham · AC Milan |
| 89' | ⚽ | Gabriele Zappa · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| coach days | 131.00 | 161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1552.10 | 1803.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.24 | -12.75 |
| eye test v1 | -1.18 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| league points | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 4.89 | 6.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 1.17 |
| solidity v1 | -0.81 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.34 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.75 |