← Serie A 2024-25 · Thu, Nov 7, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 39% | 37% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 29% | 32% | 3.36 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Como 1907 +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Lucas Da Cunha · Como 1907 |
| 32' | 🟨 | Aarón Martín · Genoa CFC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Alessandro Vogliacco · Genoa CFC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Como 1907 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alberto Moreno · Como 1907 |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · Genoa CFC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · Como 1907 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Johan Vásquez · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alessandro Vogliacco · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Como 1907 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 6.00 | 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1674.99 | 1571.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.42 | -25.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 3.09 | 3.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | 0.75 |
| solidity v1 | -0.64 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 28.98 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.92 |