← Serie A 2024-25 · Mon, Nov 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 62% | 68% | 1.56 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.33 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 15% | 11% | 6.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Cagliari Calcio −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 44% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · SS Lazio |
| 9' | 🟨 | Michel Adopo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 17' | 🟨 | Tommaso Augello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 25' | 🟨 | Tijjani Noslin · SS Lazio |
| 29' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · Cagliari Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Zito Luvumbo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 49' | 🟨 | Gabriele Zappa · Cagliari Calcio |
| 61' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · SS Lazio |
| 64' | 🟨 | Zito Luvumbo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Sebastiano Luperto · Cagliari Calcio |
| 76' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Mattia Zaccagni · SS Lazio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Michel Adopo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · Cagliari Calcio |
| 78' | 🟥 | Michel Adopo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 78' | 🟥 | Yerry Mina · Cagliari Calcio |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nicolò Rovella · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 126.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1861.21 | 1598.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.81 | 13.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| league points | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | -0.51 |
| solidity v1 | 1.50 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.83 | 27.09 |
| state index | 1.39 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.07 | 1.28 |