← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 3, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 53% | 56% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 19% | 18% | 5.09 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC +0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| AS Roma +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Casper Tengstedt · Hellas Verona FC |
| 28' | ⚽ | Matías Soulé · AS Roma |
| 34' | ⚽ | Giangiacomo Magnani · Hellas Verona FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mile Svilar · AS Roma |
| 47' | 🟨 | Tomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Artem Dovbyk · AS Roma |
| 80' | 🟨 | Giangiacomo Magnani · Hellas Verona FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Manu Koné · AS Roma |
| 88' | ⚽ | Abdou Harroui · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Dailon Rocha Livramento · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 155.00 | 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1617.65 | 1800.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.64 | -13.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.90 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | — |
| league points | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 4.98 | 2.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 0.98 |
| solidity v1 | -1.52 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.03 | 25.66 |
| state index | -0.66 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.15 |