← Serie A 2024-25 · Thu, Oct 31, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 39% | 36% | 2.52 | fair |
| Como 1907 win | 31% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.21 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 +0.25 | 54% | 1.85 |
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 50% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 50% | 2.07 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Valentín Castellanos · SS Lazio |
| 31' | ⚽ | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 36' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matthias Braunöder · Como 1907 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · SS Lazio |
| 53' | ⚽ | Luca Mazzitelli · Como 1907 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Nuno Tavares · SS Lazio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Matthias Braunöder · Como 1907 |
| 62' | 🟥 | Matthias Braunöder · Como 1907 |
| 63' | 🟨 | Gustav Isaksen · SS Lazio |
| 65' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Como 1907 | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia |
| 🟨 |
| Nuno Tavares · SS Lazio |
| 65' | 🟥 | Nuno Tavares · SS Lazio |
| 72' | ⚽ | Patric · SS Lazio |
| 81' | ⚽ | Valentín Castellanos · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Loum Tchaouna · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 122.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1574.60 | 1803.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.14 | 31.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| league points | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 4.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 0.57 |
| solidity v1 | 0.08 | 1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 28.07 |
| state index | 0.24 | 1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 0.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.83 |