← Serie A 2024-25 · Wed, Oct 30, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC win | 35% | 33% | 2.81 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 35% | 35% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Udinese Calcio +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 45% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia · Venezia FC |
| 17' | 🟨 | Martín Payero · Udinese Calcio |
| 19' | ⚽ | Sandi Lovrić · Udinese Calcio |
| 25' | ⚽ | Iker Bravo · Udinese Calcio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Lautaro Giannetti · Udinese Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC |
| 53' | 🟥 | Souleymane Isaak Touré · Udinese Calcio |
| 56' | ⚽ | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia · Venezia FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ridgeciano Haps · Venezia FC |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Joel Pohjanpalo · Venezia FC |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Venezia FC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gaetano Oristanio · Venezia FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jesper Karlström · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jaka Bijol · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 151.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1589.50 | 1704.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.12 | -2.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| league points | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.15 | 5.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.15 | 27.00 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.77 |