← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Sozza
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 38% | 36% | 2.57 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 32% | 32% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.30 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +0 | 55% | 1.80 |
| AS Roma +0 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 59% | 1.85 | value: +9% |
| Over | 47% | 41% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · ACF Fiorentina |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Beltrán · ACF Fiorentina |
| 39' | ⚽ | Manu Koné · AS Roma |
| 41' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · ACF Fiorentina |
| 42' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 50' | 🟨 | Niccolò Pisilli · AS Roma |
| 52' | ⚽ | Edoardo Bove · ACF Fiorentina |
| 57' | 🟨 | Manu Koné · AS Roma |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mario Hermoso · AS Roma |
| 61' | 🟨 | Luca Ranieri · ACF Fiorentina |
| 65' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 14 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 🟨 |
| Mario Hermoso · AS Roma |
| 65' | 🟥 | Mario Hermoso · AS Roma |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | Mats Hummels · ACF Fiorentina |
| 75' | 🟨 | Moise Kean · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 148.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1816.37 | 1808.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.37 | -17.61 |
| eye test v1 | 1.64 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| league points | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 65.20 |
| rest days | 3.13 | 3.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.55 | 1.44 |
| solidity v1 | 1.14 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.02 | 25.66 |
| state index | 1.47 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.19 | 1.53 |