← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Monza win | 45% | 43% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +5% |
| Venezia FC win | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Monza −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Venezia FC −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 66% | 1.81 | value: +19% |
| Over | 47% | 34% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Mikael Ellertsson · Venezia FC |
| 23' | ⚽ | Georgios Kyriakopoulos · AC Monza |
| 39' | ⚽ | Michael Svoboda · Venezia FC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Milan Đurić · AC Monza |
| 50' | 🟨 | Dany Mota · AC Monza |
| 51' | 🟨 | Gianluca Busio · Venezia FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Warren Bondo · AC Monza |
| 76' | 🟨 | Francesco Zampano · Venezia FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Warren Bondo · AC Monza |
| 80' | 🟥 | Warren Bondo · AC Monza |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Venezia FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Milan Đurić · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 148.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1683.09 | 1585.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.28 | -3.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 5.80 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 0.37 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.31 | 25.74 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.72 | 1.06 |