← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 44% | 51% | 2.20 | value: +12% |
| Empoli win | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.48 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Empoli −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 46% | 1.87 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 54% | 2.05 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Enrico Del Prato · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 20' | 🟨 | Faustino Anjorin · Empoli |
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Woyo Coulibaly · Empoli |
| 50' | 🟨 | Hernani · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ardian Ismajli · Empoli |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Empoli |
| 80' | ⚽ | Gabriel Charpentier · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 82' | 🟨 | Devis Vásquez · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simon Sohm · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Botond Balogh · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |
| 🟨 |
| Pietro Pellegri · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 818.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1605.23 | 1671.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.82 | 7.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.94 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -1.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.41 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.11 | 24.98 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 0.59 |