← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 20, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 39% | 42% | 2.46 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 29% | 29% | 3.39 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Cagliari Calcio −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Saúl Coco · Torino FC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Nicolas Viola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Antonio Sanabria · Torino FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Valentino Lazaro · Torino FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Torino FC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Karol Linetty · Torino FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Michel Adopo · Cagliari Calcio |
| 74' | ⚽ | José Luis Palomino · Cagliari Calcio |
| 78' | ⚽ (og) | Saúl Coco · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 12 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| coach days | 111.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1604.89 | 1772.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.26 | -4.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.80 |
| league points | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 14.23 | 14.89 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -1.01 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 26.90 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.21 |