← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 6, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: L. Marinelli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 64% | 76% | 1.52 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 22% | 17% | 4.40 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 14% | 7% | 7.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −1 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Cagliari Calcio −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Vlahović · Juventus FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Khéphren Thuram · Juventus FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Nicolò Savona · Juventus FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Francisco Conceição · Juventus FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Andrea Cambiaso · Juventus FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · Cagliari Calcio |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Răzvan Marin · Cagliari Calcio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Francisco Conceição · Juventus FC |
| 89' | 🟥 | Francisco Conceição · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 127.00 | 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1884.06 | 1597.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.95 | -26.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.53 |
| league points | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 5.66 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.17 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | 2.16 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.82 | 26.49 |
| state index | 1.35 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.75 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.43 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.68 |