← Serie A 2024-25 · Mon, Sep 30, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 48% | 43% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +3% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 26% | 30% | 3.78 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 45% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Adrián Bernabé · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 34' | ⚽ | Nadir Zortea · Cagliari Calcio |
| 48' | 🟨 | Woyo Coulibaly · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Adam Obert · Cagliari Calcio |
| 62' | ⚽ | Dennis Man · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 75' | ⚽ | Răzvan Marin · Cagliari Calcio |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Hernani · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 87' | ⚽ | Roberto Piccoli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anas Haj Mohamed · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roberto Piccoli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 791.00 | 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1609.78 | 1584.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.69 | -34.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.70 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.53 |
| league points | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -1.01 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.47 | 27.84 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.40 |