← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 29, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 49% | 46% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +6% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 22% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Como 1907 −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Patrick Cutrone · Como 1907 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Reda Belahyane · Hellas Verona FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Sergi Roberto · Como 1907 |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Darko Lazović · Hellas Verona FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Tomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona FC |
| 64' | 🟥 | Tomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona FC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Patrick Cutrone · Como 1907 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Diego Coppola · Hellas Verona FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Maximo Perrone · Como 1907 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Como 1907 | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia |
| 84' |
| 🟨 |
| Daniel Mosquera · Hellas Verona FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Como 1907 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mathis Lambourde · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 90.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1586.04 | 1655.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.13 | 20.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 4.76 | 8.76 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -0.76 |
| solidity v1 | -0.08 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 25.13 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.05 |