← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 36% | 32% | 2.73 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 33% | 29% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 39% | 3.20 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bologna FC 1909 +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 53% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 47% | 2.26 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 29' | 🟨 | Raoul Bellanova · Atalanta BC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Odilon Kossounou · Atalanta BC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Giovanni Fabbian · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 46' | ⚽ | Santiago Castro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 51' | 🟥 | Jhon Lucumí · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Éderson · Atalanta BC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Łukasz Skorupski · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lazar Samardžić · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 23 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 119.00 | 3041.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1805.07 | 1890.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.97 | -29.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.24 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | 0.99 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 28.02 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.20 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.89 |