← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 22, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 40% | 43% | 2.40 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| ACF Fiorentina −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 48% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 52% | 2.12 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Robin Gosens · ACF Fiorentina |
| 25' | 🟨 | Gustav Isaksen · SS Lazio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Mario Gila Fuentes · SS Lazio |
| 42' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Albert Guðmundsson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 85' | 🟨 | Patric · SS Lazio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · SS Lazio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nuno Tavares · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dodô · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Albert Guðmundsson · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 113.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1773.63 | 1811.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.48 | -10.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | 0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 5.66 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | 1.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.40 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.00 | 26.83 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.60 |