← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Lecce win | 45% | 33% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 39% | 3.50 | value: +37% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 27% | 28% | 3.74 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 53% | 1.95 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 47% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Ylber Ramadani · US Lecce |
| 32' | ⚽ | Patrick Dorgu · US Lecce |
| 47' | 🟥 | Frédéric Guilbert · US Lecce |
| 51' | 🟨 | Patrick Dorgu · US Lecce |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kialonda Gaspar · US Lecce |
| 58' | 🟥 | Matteo Cancellieri · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 59' | ⚽ | Nikola Krstović · US Lecce |
| 84' | 🟨 | Hamza Rafia · US Lecce |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pontus Almqvist · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Antoine Hainaut · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 24 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 12 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare |
| coach days |
| 204.00 |
| 782.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1575.86 | 1595.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.55 | -2.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 46.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 6.24 | 5.09 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | 0.10 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.47 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.51 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.53 |