← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 15, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.90 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 21% | 21% | 4.68 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio +0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| SSC Napoli +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 58% | 1.82 | value: +5% |
| Under | 47% | 42% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · SSC Napoli |
| 42' | 🟨 | Stanislav Lobotka · SSC Napoli |
| 57' | 🟨 | Romelu Lukaku · SSC Napoli |
| 66' | ⚽ | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · SSC Napoli |
| 70' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · SSC Napoli |
| 75' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alessandro Buongiorno · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 76.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1611.55 | 1801.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.97 | -7.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| league points | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 14.98 | 14.89 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.65 |
| solidity v1 | 0.48 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.99 | 28.32 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.66 |