← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Di Marco
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 76% | 77% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 6.41 | fair |
| Venezia FC win | 9% | 10% | 11.00 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC −1.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| AC Milan −1.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 63% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 37% | 2.83 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 16' | ⚽ | Youssouf Fofana · AC Milan |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Pulišić · AC Milan |
| 29' | 🟨 | Joel Schingtienne · Venezia FC |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Tammy Abraham · AC Milan |
| 38' | 🟨 | Matteo Gabbia · AC Milan |
| 67' | 🟨 | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia · Venezia FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia · Venezia FC |
| 73' | 🟥 | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia · Venezia FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Venezia FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 105.00 | 105.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1847.35 | 1588.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.97 | 4.22 |
| eye test v1 | 1.16 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| league points | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.62 | -0.85 |
| solidity v1 | -0.62 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.64 | 26.55 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.06 | 0.70 |