← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 1, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 46% | 44% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +6% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 25% | 23% | 3.92 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Hellas Verona FC −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 59% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Tomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Paweł Dawidowicz · Hellas Verona FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Morten Frendrup · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Abdou Harroui · Hellas Verona FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Koni De Winter · Genoa CFC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jackson Tchatchoua · Hellas Verona FC |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Casper Tengstedt · Hellas Verona FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Casper Tengstedt · Hellas Verona FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Reda Belahyane · Hellas Verona FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ondrej Duda · Hellas Verona FC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 640.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1733.93 | 1647.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.92 | 20.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 7.91 | 5.91 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -0.54 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.29 | 25.54 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.20 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.50 |