← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 17, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 63% | 58% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.42 | value: +9% |
| Torino FC win | 15% | 17% | 6.67 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Torino FC −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 51% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 49% | 2.14 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ (og) | Malick Thiaw · Torino FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Samuele Ricci · Torino FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mërgim Vojvoda · Torino FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Luka Jović · AC Milan |
| 68' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Torino FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · AC Milan |
| 89' | 🟨 | Adrien Tameze · Torino FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ali Dembélé · Torino FC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| 🟨 |
| Che Adams · Torino FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Noah Okafor · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 77.00 | 47.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1866.29 | 1760.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.60 | 16.73 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.74 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.58 | 27.29 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.27 | 0.72 |