← Serie A 2023-24 · Thu, May 23, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Prontera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 56% | 54% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.90 | value: +3% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 20% | 20% | 5.08 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Cagliari Calcio +0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 59% | 1.77 | value: +4% |
| Under | 45% | 41% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Giacomo Bonaventura · ACF Fiorentina |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 64' | ⚽ | Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 71' | 🟨 | Giacomo Bonaventura · ACF Fiorentina |
| 85' | ⚽ | Kingstone Mutandwa · Cagliari Calcio |
| 89' | 🟨 | M'Bala Nzola · ACF Fiorentina |
| 89' | ⚽ | Nicolás González · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sulemana · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 508.00 |
| 1057.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 4.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1582.77 | 1750.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| league points | 36.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.00 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 4.34 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | -0.32 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.26 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.58 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.77 |