← Serie A 2023-24 · Mon, May 20, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 35% | 42% | 2.84 | value: +20% |
| Juventus FC win | 35% | 28% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.14 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Bologna FC 1909 +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 62% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 38% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Riccardo Calafiori · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 11' | ⚽ | Santiago Castro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 26' | 🟨 | Fabio Miretti · Juventus FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Andrea Cambiaso · Juventus FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Riccardo Calafiori · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 62' | 🟨 | Danilo · Juventus FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Bremer · Juventus FC |
| 76' | ⚽ | Federico Chiesa · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Michel Aebischer · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 83' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · Juventus FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Kenan Yıldız |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolò Fagioli · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 627.00 |
| 1115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1794.91 | 1802.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.01 | -14.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 67.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 9.11 | 8.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 0.85 |
| solidity v1 | 0.87 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.77 | 27.06 |
| state index | 1.12 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.36 |